报告摘要：Ecologists are increasingly interested in forecasting impacts of environmental change to guide natural resource management and to advance basic research. Despite the wide variety of modeling approaches used in forecasting, their advantages and disadvantages are rarely discussed. I will use a simulation case study and an empirical example involving precipitation and primary production in rangelands to make the case that different approaches are suited for different forecast time scales, because they represent different ecological processes. In particular, long-term forecasts will need to consider slow ecological processes, such as community turnover, even when the focus of the forecast is a population or community level response.

报告摘要：在生态学和环境科学等学科的研究中，数据的非正态分布以及数据间的非独立性等现象普遍存在，运用传统简单的统计分析方法处理这些数据往往受到质疑。相较于传统的方法，广义线性混合模型的适用范围更广、形式更灵活，已成为当前生态学等领域应用最广的统计分析方法之一。但在具体的模型运用过程中，常常存在诸多误区和疑问。本次报告将结合实例，详细介绍广义混合效应模型的逻辑原理、模型的构建、模型结果的解读、模型参数的提取以及利用预测值作图等。